The Common Sense Economist

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Expert Predictions as of 7:00AM Friday October 6th

The September unemployment data is expected to look pretty much as it has over the past four months - steady, albeit slightly slower, job growth, but enough new jobs to keep the unemployment at 4.7 percent rate, near its cycle low of 4.6 percent in June.
Economists expect about 123,000 new jobs were created in September. This is right about the average job growth since May, but down from the pace earlier in the year and in the fourth quarter of last year. The jobs data is due 8:30 a.m. EDT.
What Actually Happened

U.S. added 51,000 jobs in September, sharply lower than August's 128,000. Unemployment rate falls to 4.6 percent. More soon.

7:40 AM -CNN

Job growth slows
Employers added far fewer jobs than expected in September, but unemployment rate improves to 4.6 percent.
October 6 2006: 8:39 AM EDT
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Employers added far fewer workers to their payrolls in September, according to the government's latest reading of labor market strength that came in much weaker than Wall Street expectations.
Overall, U.S. payrolls grew by 51,000 jobs in September, according to the Labor Department. That's down from the revised 188,000 job gain in August. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast a gain of 120,000 jobs.
The unemployment rate improved to 4.6 percent in the month. Economists had forecast that the rate would stay at the 4.7 percent rate reported for August.

Let’s look again at the initial August Report again…

“Hiring perked up in August as employers added 128,000 jobs, pulling down the unemployment rate to 4.7 percent, sending a Labor Day message that the economic expansion still has staying power.”

Analysis –

The August Numbers get revised UP by 60,000. Add that to the 51,000 for September and you get 111,000 which is rather close to what economists had for the September numbers. Let’s just see what the REVISED numbers for September are in the October report… oh wait… that’s after the election isn’t it…how convenient. And by the way the unemployment rate is back to the “CYCLE LOW”

EMPLOYMENT = 95.4% (FULL EMPLOYMENT According to any economics textbook)

-alspan